trends - increasing population increased population results in increased resource depletion increased resource depletion results in increased exploration increased exploration results in increased border tension increased border tension results in increased border hostilities increased border hostilities results in increased border skirmishes one border skirmish at the wrong time, at the wrong place, with the wrong people results in war what is more precious in war time than life & liberty? - resources - intelligence - labour - time what do armies consume? - men - weapons - medical supplies - munitions - alcohol - avionics - satellites - chemicals - vehicles - computers - telecommunications - debt / finance / bonds what will war do the stock market? bonds? mutual funds? gold? silver? what can produced and sold at a profit during war time? - hospitality services what happens to the civilian economy? what careers / skills will people pay gold for? - security - resources - health - me...
following joseph tainter, vaclav smil, ronald wright, jared diamond, peter turchin and niko tinbergen Failure is the best option