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Showing posts from April, 2010

real estate bubble in china

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10960 - excerpt - "50% of china CGP related to construction" http://vreaa.wordpress.com/2010/04/27/chinas-re-trading-volume-collapses-recent-mortgage-restrictions-may-be-having-an-effect-after-all/ China’s RE Trading Volume Collapses – “Recent mortgage restrictions may be having an effect after all.” China’s RE and stock markets have some direct effects on Vancouver RE in that a small number of local sales are to wealthy foreign investors from China. More important, however, is the psychological link between the two markets. Many Vancouver locals believe that our market is buoyed by China, and thus speculate on local property based on that premise. For the latter reason, this story is particularly important. It comes at the same time as ballooning inventory in Vancouver, and mortgage debt that is growing more expensive by the week. More on the Vancouver-China relationship HERE. -vreaa From businessinsider.com 27 Apr 2010 - “China’s pr

how I can unify diamond and tainter

how I can unify diamond and tainter and recast diamond un active human agency terms - not passive agency passive human agency: population grew. exhausted resources. collapse. active human agency: resource extraction costs exceeded margin. collapse. problem: rapa nui deforestation. can't divide by zero. they removed all the trees. so the cost to remove new ones from nothing is infinite and the margin on that infinite work is nothing. problem: Chaco canyon drought. no water to remove. summarize: diamond: collapse is a result of resource exhaustion tainter: collapse is a result of margin / profit exhaustion diamond: why? declining returns per unit of work invested vs unit of resource extracted tainter: why? declining returns but why declining returns? exceeded carrying capacity - non sustainable extraction

declining productivity of debt

first - i plan to lock my mortgage for 10 years. second - when mortgage brokers show you charts comparing 25 years of fixed rates to variable - you have ask yourself -is the implicit suggestion that the past is going to repeat itself valid and accurate? how comparable were the past 25 to the next 25 years? here's my thinking: I am thinking different. i am thinking about the largest debt the world has ever known. I am thinking about the trillion dollar bail out package. I am thinking about the billions spent in Canada. I am thinking about the legions of unemployed in Canada and the USA. I am thinking of the foreclosures in the us. I am thinking that the past 25 years may not be a good guide for the future. how much more can governments borrow at these rates? but that's what I am thinking. I am thinking that rates have never been this low. I am thinking how much growth does the economy have left? I am thinking about peak oil. I am thinking about us companies too big too fail that

how is a blog about civilisation collapse related to US real estate?

how isn't it? for most people, their wealth and resources are stored in their house. when the market value sinks below what they owe their savings are gone. News: article predicting 7 million home foreclosures has been pulled by MSNBC. The article titled "New Wave of Foreclosures Threatens Market: Up to 7 Million Homes Are Potentially Eligible But Haven’t Been Repossessed" was available at this link - http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/35832152/ns/business-washington_post//. Googling the tite - http://www.google.ca/search?sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8&q=New+wave+of+foreclosures+threatens+market%0AUp+to+7+million+homes+are+potentially+eligible+but+haven%E2%80%99t+been+repossessed - yields several cached copies.