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declining productivity of debt

first - i plan to lock my mortgage for 10 years.

second - when mortgage brokers show you charts comparing 25 years of fixed rates to variable - you have ask yourself -is the implicit suggestion that the past is going to repeat itself valid and accurate? how comparable were the past 25 to the next 25 years?

here's my thinking:

I am thinking different.

i am thinking about the largest debt the world has ever known.

I am thinking about the trillion dollar bail out package.

I am thinking about the billions spent in Canada.

I am thinking about the legions of unemployed in Canada and the USA.

I am thinking of the foreclosures in the us.

I am thinking that the past 25 years may not be a good guide for the future.

how much more can governments borrow at these rates?

but that's what I am thinking.

I am thinking that rates have never been this low.

I am thinking how much growth does the economy have left?

I am thinking about peak oil.

I am thinking about us companies too big too fail that failed on wall street and in deteroit.

I am thinking about the us fighting expensive wars on two fronts.

I think those 25 year averages are telling a story about past events.

what peaks and valleys correlate with events similar to those that have happened recently?

so what does that 25 year average really tell us?

would that have helped predict or prepare us for this?

check this out - why the next 25 are nothing like the past 25 years.

http://fedupusa.org/2010/03/20/the-most-important-chart-of-the-century/

debt is getting less productive!

joseph tainter predicts this in his 1983 book the collpase of complex societies. his book covers mayans and Romans etc - but the mechanisms are identical.

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