from Joseph A. Tainter's "The Collpase of Complex Societies"
the 11 major themes in the explanation of collapse:
1. depletion or cessation of a vital resources or resources on which the society depends
2. the establishment of a new resource base
3. the occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe
4. insufficient response to circumstances (deadly lack of experience?)
5. other complex societies
6. intruders
7. class conflict, societal contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehaviour
8. social dysfunction
9. mystical factors
10. chance concatenation of events
11. economic factors
is it possible that our civilisation meets these criteria?
1. depletion or cessation of a vital resources or resources on which the society depends
YES
Water, oil, soil, and fish are all severely depleted to the point of collapse.
2. the establishment of a new resource base
MAYBE
Coal, nuclear, solar, and geothermal represent new resources bases.
3. the occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe
MAYBE
Global warming, resource depletion, and environmental pollution may prove insurmountable.
4. insufficient response to circumstances (deadly lack of experience?)
MAYBE
Insufficient cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and the global credit crisis.
5. other complex societies
MAYBE
Brazil, China, India and Russia could challenge the US
6. intruders
YES
Avian flu, AIDS, pine beetles and jelly fish are taking hold where they didn't exist before.
7. class conflict, societal contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehaviour
YES
Police violence, army torture, ponzi schemes, and cheating.
8. social dysfunction
TBD
9. mystical factors
YES
Christian, Islamic and Jewish forces.
10. chance concatenation of events
YES
Global warming, global credit crisis plus intruders.
11. economic factors
YES
Global credit crisis
the 11 major themes in the explanation of collapse:
1. depletion or cessation of a vital resources or resources on which the society depends
2. the establishment of a new resource base
3. the occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe
4. insufficient response to circumstances (deadly lack of experience?)
5. other complex societies
6. intruders
7. class conflict, societal contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehaviour
8. social dysfunction
9. mystical factors
10. chance concatenation of events
11. economic factors
is it possible that our civilisation meets these criteria?
1. depletion or cessation of a vital resources or resources on which the society depends
YES
Water, oil, soil, and fish are all severely depleted to the point of collapse.
2. the establishment of a new resource base
MAYBE
Coal, nuclear, solar, and geothermal represent new resources bases.
3. the occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe
MAYBE
Global warming, resource depletion, and environmental pollution may prove insurmountable.
4. insufficient response to circumstances (deadly lack of experience?)
MAYBE
Insufficient cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and the global credit crisis.
5. other complex societies
MAYBE
Brazil, China, India and Russia could challenge the US
6. intruders
YES
Avian flu, AIDS, pine beetles and jelly fish are taking hold where they didn't exist before.
7. class conflict, societal contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehaviour
YES
Police violence, army torture, ponzi schemes, and cheating.
8. social dysfunction
TBD
9. mystical factors
YES
Christian, Islamic and Jewish forces.
10. chance concatenation of events
YES
Global warming, global credit crisis plus intruders.
11. economic factors
YES
Global credit crisis
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