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are we in a civilisation collapse according to tainter's 11 factors?

from Joseph A. Tainter's "The Collpase of Complex Societies"

the 11 major themes in the explanation of collapse:

1. depletion or cessation of a vital resources or resources on which the society depends

2. the establishment of a new resource base

3. the occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe

4. insufficient response to circumstances (deadly lack of experience?)

5. other complex societies

6. intruders

7. class conflict, societal contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehaviour

8. social dysfunction

9. mystical factors

10. chance concatenation of events

11. economic factors


is it possible that our civilisation meets these criteria?


1. depletion or cessation of a vital resources or resources on which the society depends

YES

Water, oil, soil, and fish are all severely depleted to the point of collapse.


2. the establishment of a new resource base

MAYBE

Coal, nuclear, solar, and geothermal represent new resources bases.

3. the occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe

MAYBE

Global warming, resource depletion, and environmental pollution may prove insurmountable.

4. insufficient response to circumstances (deadly lack of experience?)

MAYBE

Insufficient cuts to greenhouse gas emissions and the global credit crisis.

5. other complex societies

MAYBE

Brazil, China, India and Russia could challenge the US

6. intruders

YES

Avian flu, AIDS, pine beetles and jelly fish are taking hold where they didn't exist before.

7. class conflict, societal contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehaviour

YES

Police violence, army torture, ponzi schemes, and cheating.

8. social dysfunction

TBD

9. mystical factors

YES

Christian, Islamic and Jewish forces.

10. chance concatenation of events

YES

Global warming, global credit crisis plus intruders.

11. economic factors

YES

Global credit crisis

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