civilization collapse

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5576 "Is peak oil real? The BP Statistical Review of World Energy provides the data needed to answer this question. Using the 2009 edition, I have compiled a list of all oil producing countries and regions in the world, along with the production status of each, ordered by year of peak production. BP groups minor producers into categories like "Other Africa", and "Other Middle East", and that notation is used here. All production numbers are quoted in thousands of barrels/day."

Where you want to be? Friends of mind - peak oil - by net. The queen died, the harvest failed. Where did fortune go? The giants, slain and plundered, bones picked clean. The queen ran away with the gold. The king ashamed, tells of her death. The people starve and fight.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/health/could-air-pollution-be-undermining-our-intelligence/article1229627/ In the first study of its kind, U.S. researchers have found a link between pregnant women being exposed to air pollution and lower IQs of their children. "This is a warning bell," said the lead author of the study, Frederica Perera, director of the Columbia Center for Children's Environmental Health in New York. ... At the age of 5, the children were given intelligence quotient tests. The study showed that the children of mothers exposed to the highest level of PAHs had IQ scores that were between 4.3 and 4.6 points lower than kids whose moms had the least pollution exposure.

how can civilisation collapse? that implies it had risen. where are the signs of rising? - iraq invasion? - exxon valdez crash? - enron? - bernie madoff? - goldman sachs? - monsanto? - haliburton / kbr? - nagasaki / hiroshima? - vietnam / napalm?

Agweek - publishes a cover story about stem rust - Ug99 and the race to find a cure.

A 'time bomb' for world wheat crop - Los Angeles Times: http://articles.latimes.com/2009/jun/14/science/sci-wheat-rust14 Wikipedia entry on Stem Rust: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stem_rust

the center can not hold things fall apart i have everything i want i have nothing outside all is well inside self respect is not home what do you expect from others? it all starts at home

a new view of where i am - the world is infinite -- endless possibility - the world is threatened -- overwhelming disaster - the roots of that disaster --get used to the bell curve - it's an illusion -- the world is infinite

growth. i knew the word but didn't know what it meant. i was grown. done. mature. when i thought of movies, stories i wanted to tell - i could not manage character development. it was alien. instead there was just being - just events - just existence. but - somewhere somewhy somehow something is different. and. i. guess. love. lead. me. to. it. (i am more comfortable with the periods.) the conclusion is i haven't been able to acknowledge my father's abandonment (i was 8 when my parents divorced) and identify myself as a worthwhile person. so - i have broken lots (sigh! - no wonder i love Elizabeth Bishop's One Art ) of good things along the way to preserve this broken thing. but finally i am not abraham . i have sacrificed many other lives - and myself - but i can't kill my children . my love for them - meaning i want to manufacture the best possible gene delivery systems - has lead me to open doors i haven't wanted to open for 30 years. my life. tainter's w

third industrial revolution around the corner? after reading http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Depression: "The Long Depression was a depression that affected much of the world and was contemporary with the Second Industrial Revolution." it made me use my magical thinking (http://warsocialism.com/e1.html) to imagine that if we are having a depression now - surely another industrial revolution will follow. what could it be? - stem cell research - renewable energy sources - nanotech and what about the unintended consequences of these? the 2nd industrial revolution did nothing to disprove malthus' dismal science - how could the 3rd industrial revolution be different? might not the third industrial revolution be the disintermediating power of the internet? the internet gives me access to the productive capacity of the worlds factories and employees.

Göbekli Tepe carvings speak to me http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history-archaeology/gobekli-tepe.html?c=y&page=2 "What was so important to these early people that they gathered to build (and bury) the stone rings? The gulf that separates us from Gobekli Tepe's builders is almost unimaginable. Indeed, though I stood among the looming megaliths eager to take in their meaning, they didn't speak to me. They were utterly foreign, placed there by people who saw the world in a way I will never comprehend. There are no sources to explain what the symbols might mean." Can't understand?? We are still the same - our need for symbols is the same. The symbols are even the same - The Chicago Bulls? The American Eagle? Puma Brand running shoes? The astrologers predictions are still printed daily in newspapers for Taurus the Bull. Read "where the wild things are" by maurice sendak. a boy is sent to bed without supper. in his imagination he becomes king of the wild t

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history-archaeology/gobekli-tepe.html?c=y&page=1 'To Schmidt and others, these new findings suggest a novel theory of civilization. Scholars have long believed that only after people learned to farm and live in settled communities did they have the time, organization and resources to construct temples and support complicated social structures. But Schmidt argues it was the other way around: the extensive, coordinated effort to build the monoliths literally laid the groundwork for the development of complex societies.' Interesting theory - but why? What was the problem building temples solved? Why was building temples cheaper than the alternative? what was that alternative? 'Hodder is fascinated that Gobekli Tepe's pillar carvings are dominated not by edible prey like deer and cattle but by menacing creatures such as lions, spiders, snakes and scorpions. "It's a scary, fantastic world of nasty-looking beasts," he muses. Whi

pictures: http://www.archaeology.org/0811/abstracts/turkey.html http://www.panoramio.com/map/#lt=37.223003&ln=38.922364&z=4&k=2&a=1 http://www.balkantravellers.com/en/read/article/1029 Videos: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TU2qwoMfq-U http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YBfxUq6Z1KM

My map here http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&msa=0&msid= 112331474791804750058.00046445566d01d5487be The Google Earth/World Atlas users find the site at 37.223300N, 38.922400E. There are also photos accessible through the Google Earth interface). http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&ll=37.222653,38.922082&spn=0.002332,0.004629&t=h&z=18&msid=112331474791804750058.00046445566d01d5487be

Göbekli Tepe Klaus Schmidt: http://www.dainst.org/index_642_en.html EDEN? http://www.forteantimes.com/features/articles/449/gobekli_tepe_paradise_regained.html 'Gobekli Tepe is staggeringly ancient. Carbon dating of organic matter adhering to the megaliths shows that the complex is 12,000 years old. That is to say, it was built around 10,000–9,000 BC. By comparison, Stonehenge was built around 2,000–2,500 BC. Prior to the discovery and dating of Gobekli Tepe, the most ancient megalithic complex was thought to be in Malta, dated around 3,500BC." Schmidt’s thesis has supporting data. In the latest season of digging, his team have found human bones in soils that once filled the niches behind the megaliths. “I believe the ancient hunters brought the corpses of relatives here, and installed them in the open niches by the stones. The corpses were then excarnated: picked clean by wild animals.' 'There is more evidence that Gobekli had a religious purpose: the circular arrange

the conquest of the visigoths of spain by tariq - and the conquest of montezuma and the mexica by Cortes what do they have in common? tariq ordered his ships burned to help conquer spain for islam cortes ordered his ships burned to help conquer the new world for spain i wonder how he got that idea...

1. shrinking energy for peasants http://www.bnd.com/sports/columnists/story/654250.html Average worker paychecks are worth less now than in 1973, but CEOs and other rich Americans not only make much more, they pay less in taxes. Click here to find out more! Average full-time workers made $41,198 in 1973 and $37,606 in 2008, adjusted for inflation. CEOs made 45 times as much as workers in 1973 and more than 300 times as much as workers now. The top tax rate was 70 percent in 1973 and just 35 percent now; taxpayers pay the top rate on the portion of taxable income that falls within the highest bracket and pay lower rates on income below that. The top rate for capital gains on the sale of stock and other assets was 36.5 percent in 1973 and 15 percent now. Irrational pay and tax cuts have generated a massive redistribution of income and wealth from workers to CEOs, hedge fund managers and others in the richest 1 percent. By 2006, the richest 1 percent had increased their share of the natio

Q: How is a house like a farm? How does it produce an income? A: When I flip it or when I rent it to tenants. 1. abandoned houses (farms) http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/modern-day-ghost-towns-of-abandoned-real-estate/ The cities here aren’t entirely deserted, of course, but they are examples of the cities that have been hit hard enough to lead residents to abandon their homes. Riverside County, California ...these houses were purchased by many people who wanted to buy bigger homes for the buck than they could get in LA and the OC, which of course led to an increase in speculative building and investing. It is estimated that in 2005, only 15% of area homeowners could actually afford their houses, with the remaining 85% living beyond their means or in adjustable rate mortgages that had not yet adjusted. The latter, once adjusted, would then prove to be unaffordable. North Los Angeles County, California ...Today, in Antelope Valley, for example, it is not unusual for long-term rent

1. U.S. Military Will Offer Path to Citizenship “The Army will gain in its strength in human capital,” General Freakley said, “and the immigrants will gain their citizenship and get on a ramp to the American dream.” ... Recruiters’ work became easier in the last few months as unemployment soared and more Americans sought to join the military. But the Pentagon, facing a new deployment of 30,000 troops to Afghanistan, still has difficulties in attracting doctors, specialized nurses and language experts. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/us/15immig.html 2. consider the Roman's http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_citizenship Socii Further information: Foederati, Social War, and Lex Julia Socii or Foederati were citizens of states which had treaty obligations with Rome, typically agreements under which certain legal rights of the state's citizens under Roman law were exchanged for agreed upon levels of military service, i.e. the Roman magistrates had the right to levy soldiers for th

joseph tainter in his 1988 classic "the collapse of complex societies" discusses, who mayan society, in the absence of large standing armies, may have used monumental architecture as a deterrent. monumental architecture meaning the pyramids. in modern day terms, the nuclear weapon stockpiles save similar purposes. demonstrations of awesome power, which consumed vast amounts of elite resources with no economic benefit, with the sole purpose to frighten and intimidate the enemy from attacking and causing an economically ruinous war.

i am obsessed with showing how current events are mirroring past civilisation collapses specifically how the american empire is following the joseph tainter's law - collapse follows when continued investment in complexity yields ever declining returns to the point that investment in complexity yields negative returns and collapse inevitably follows. declining returns - where increased investment is required to maintain the status quo, or increased investment is required to get LESS - where investments by elites impoverish the peasantry here's a list of investments the american empire has made / is making with declining returns - in no order at the moment: - sarbanes oxley - prevent stock holder accounting fraud aka enron -- are investors provably safer? NOT - tsa - air port security - prevent another 911 -- are passengers provably safer? NOT - the american embassy in baghdad - monumental architecture at it's finest -- are consumers paying less at the pump? NOT - the bank ba

The name says is it all. Stimulate the economy by generating revenue from the regulation of sexual services and previously prohibited agricultural and pharmaceutical products. At the moment, the prohibition of these products is great EXPENSE, draining vast sums of public money into an entreprise with NO RETURN ON INVESTMENT. By generating income from regulating these industries, these industries no longer become EXPENSE industries, they become INCOME industries, enabling the government to INCREASE spending on justice, health and education.

from Joseph A. Tainter's "The Collpase of Complex Societies" the 11 major themes in the explanation of collapse: 1. depletion or cessation of a vital resources or resources on which the society depends 2. the establishment of a new resource base 3. the occurrence of some insurmountable catastrophe 4. insufficient response to circumstances (deadly lack of experience?) 5. other complex societies 6. intruders 7. class conflict, societal contradictions, elite mismanagement or misbehaviour 8. social dysfunction 9. mystical factors 10. chance concatenation of events 11. economic factors is it possible that our civilisation meets these criteria? 1. depletion or cessation of a vital resources or resources on which the society depends YES Water, oil, soil, and fish are all severely depleted to the point of collapse. 2. the establishment of a new resource base MAYBE Coal, nuclear, solar, and geothermal represent new resources bases. 3. the occurrence of some insurmountable catastro

1. why have complex societies formed? 2. why have complex societies formed only in the past 10,000 years? 3. the genus homo has been around for 2.5 million years - but only recently formed complexity - why? 4. could it be that one time special environmental conditions allowed unprecendented ecosystem exploitation first through hunting in the ice age, and then farming? 5. could it be that a passing environmental "sweet spot" allowed the genus homo to flourish - and that once the unusual weather has passed - the genus homo will find it difficult once again?