civilization collapse

Cook the planet to death by burning all the fossil fuels That's a dumb way to die  Have as more children than the planet can support That's a dumb way to die Eat all the fish in the ocean till there's nothing left to eat That's a dumb way to die Pollute the ocean with plastics so seagulls starve because their bellies are full of plastic That's a dumb way to die Deplete the aquifers so that there is no water left to farm That's a dumb way to die Keep increasing atmospheric co2 levels to accelerate sea level rise That's a dumb way to die

Global warming Species extinction Ocean pollution 7 billion humans 3 cubic miles of oil consumed per year

100 more years of metals and then we will have to find alternatives or mine the heavens.

You wake up No idea who you or where you are Screaming and fighting You figure out and are helped to operate the door You go through more doors and hoops and take on more risks, get more specialized, and become more invested in the things staying a certain way And from time to time you look out the windows and see other trains going the same way - some are clean, others are filled with people, some fighting, and others are grimly quiet Every so often the train your on changes the conductors and the engineers and rules are changed about who gets to sit where and how much money everyone gets to keep Most people can't or won't switch trains. Instead they buy things that help them pretend they are someone or somewhere else. Some of these things kill or melt them. After a long while you realize you have never seen where the train is going and that almost no one on the train is interested The problem is no one is going get rich, powerful or famous from changing the

What we have done: We've exhausted every corner of the earth We are raising the earths temperature over the past 100 years and for at least a hundred more Estimates of 100,000 species extinct per year What has the price bought? 7 billion humans Space mission Origin of species and universe Atheism Internet brain memory Nuclear deterrent 20 more years to live - with dementia? Is it worth it?

if you have 5 minutes: #1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil The world consumes approximately 3 CMO annually from all sources. if you have another 5 minutes #2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJ-J91SwP8w 300 Years of FOSSIL FUELS in 300 Seconds if you have 7 minutes #3 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQqDS9wGsxQ Who Killed Economic Growth? if you have 17 minutes #4 http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_gilding_the_earth_is_full.html Paul Gilding starts his TEDTalk with four words that say almost everything: “The Earth is full.” It’s a terrifying concept. Have we really strained, mined and otherwise depleted the planet’s resources to the point where social collapse is inevitable? Gilding believes we have, and he launches into a defense of that notion. if you have 1 hour #5 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4KRWoubPEo Holocene Extinction - Sixth great Extinction if you have 4 hours: #6 http://www.econ.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Morrigan_2010_Energy_CC4.pdf

Civs fail because they eat too much - more than they can sustainably produce It is possible we can keep increasing production But no other civ has Prepare for the worst but work towards the best - solarvores

http://www.amazon.ca/Twilight-Elites-America-After-Meritocracy/dp/0307720454

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_162-57448055-10391704/world-health-organization-warns-of-gonorrhea-strain-resistant-to-antibiotics/ world health organization says sexually transmitted disease is resistant to anti-biotics. hello population reduction. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504763_162-57398949-10391704/who-antibiotic-overuse-so-prevalent-scraped-knee-could-be-deadly/ "We are losing our first-line antimicrobials. Replacement treatments are more costly, more toxic, need much longer durations of treatment, and may require treatment in intensive care units,"

The Purpose of Spectacular Wealth, According to a Spectacularly Wealthy Guy http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/06/magazine/romneys-former-bain-partner-makes-a-case-for-inequality.html who knows more about the economy? bain's former new york manager that re portedly has made hundreds of millions or   nouriel roubini and other economists? for all that he is still scrooge - are there no work houses for the poor? as if there is no social contract.   The first man who, having fenced in a piece of land, said "This is mine," and found people naïve enough to believe him, that man was the  true founder of civil society. From how many crimes, wars, and murders, from how many horrors and misfortunes might not any one have saved mankind, by pulling up the stakes, or filling up the ditch, and crying to his fellows: Beware of listening to this impostor; you are undone if you once forget that the fruits of the earth belong to us all, and the earth itself to nobody. http://en.wikip

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temple_of_Apollo_(Delphi)#Temple_of_Apollo Carved into the temple were three phrases: γνῶθι σεαυτόν (gnōthi seautón = "know thyself") and μηδέν άγαν (mēdén ágan = "nothing in excess"), and Ἑγγύα πάρα δ'ἄτη (engýa pára d'atē = "make a pledge and mischief is nigh"). The first two I had heard - but not the third. I have been told to make goals - targets - quotas. These are pledges. I have been told that I need goals in order to achieve and succeed, because if I didn't have goals I wouldn't do what it takes. What it takes is doing what you don't want to do. A goal is necessary to do what you don't want to do. Like quitting smoking - or selling $250,000 a year worth of widgets.

to create the energy we get from oil by least expensive means - wind - we would need to spend an extra $10 trillion and would require an area the size of three new zealands http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cubic_mile_of_oil The world consumes approximately 3 CMO annually from all sources. Source CMO/yr Oil 1.06 Coal 0.81 Natural gas 0.61 Biomass 0.19 Nuclear 0.15 Hydroelectric 0.17 Geothermal <0.01 Wind+Photovoltaic+Solar thermal <0.005 Installing capacity to produce 1 CMO per year requires long and significant development. Allowing fifty years to develop the requisite capacity, 1 CMO of energy per year could be produced by any one of these developments: 4  Three Gorges Dams , [14]  developed each year for 50 years,  or 52  nuclear power plants , [15]  developed each year for 50 years,  or 104  coal-fired power plants , [16]  developed each year for 50 years,  or 32,850  wind turbines , [17] [18]  developed each year for 50 years,  or 91,250,000 rooftop 

"our prediction of small further increases in world oil production comes at the expense of a near doubling, permanently, of real oil prices over the coming decade" http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12109.pdf

as it happens interview with jeff rubin - end of growth listen here: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/3731595/Jeff%20Rubin%20End%20of%20Growth.mp3 buy here: http://www.amazon.ca/End-Growth-Jeff-Rubin/dp/030736089X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1337056458&sr=8-1

this is fantastic example of decision making by elites that favors the good of the few over the good of the many and hastens the collapse http://www.alternet.org/environment/155359/conservative_thinktanks_launch_campaign_to_turn_americans_against_wind_energy/?page=entire

Stone age solutions for stone age problems 100,000 year old Steam age Peak oil is the uninvited fairy that curses the princess to die in 16 years Handlemaker Bank is the 13th fairy The Bank can't reverse the curse only mitigate the effects What is needed is leadership and incentives to mitigate effects Without leadership predictable events may result in avoidable suffering and economic losses Banking and investment are core of functioning economies. New economies require new banking and investment solutions. Energy component: Energy is like a currency. Oil, gas, hydrogen, or stored electrical power. Used by elites. New component: Promote positive post oil future by funding and profiting from the post oil economy

Slide 1 predictions for 2020 Slide 2 What we know for sure is that The Oil shortage is getting worse Slide 3 What we don't know is if we find 5 saudia Arabia sized oil fields by then Slide 4 What we don't know is if an oil replacement can be sold in all the gas stations around the world by then Slide 5 What we don't know is what are the consequences of the increased destruction of the environment needed to get the last drop of oil Slide 6 But we know that as oil prices rise so too will the prices of all things that depend on oil Slide 7 We know that in 2020 the prices for some products for many people will become unaffordable Slide 8 We know that in 2020 that food and water will become unaffordable for many people and we guess the international community will be able to share something but not enough Slide 9 We know medicine and medical serviced will suffer causing infant mortality to rise and life expentancy to plummet Slide 10 We know that couples will star

Why am I thinking To write To type The sound the blackberry curve 9360 makes Creaks and breaks Unlike the silent iphone Something is not right If all was well I was happy and content Perhaps question the universe and my place in it I would not I don't look forward to tomorrow I want to write I hate living But its wrong even if its true Each morning The big why I can't answer Inside I look Answers aren't there So I dodge past Make coffee Eat breakfast Get dressed Pretty soon the question is almost gone Maybe I'll be dead before tomorrow Its the hunger I know it That's killing the planet I don't have it bad now But I have had it bad before Goals Sales quotas Growth An Emaciated crack user sitting on her haunches searching the cracks in the pavement for non existant crack for the third time Now I am not hungry to swallow the world But I was Starving Voracious Take my credit card Let's order another round So I know I don&

Now I ask about civ collapse I have thousands of years of answers Go and dig your grave

M$ if we don't move we are going to die - or our kids are going to die F$ I am fed up with this M$ you're ignoring the facts F$ you don't know what's going to happen M$ yes we do - oil is not a renewable resource F$ they are alternatives M$ none that are city size F$ I don't care M$ there isn't going to be enough food F$ billions of other people live with hunger and they are happy and have families M$ but that doesn't mean WE have to be hungry F$ why not? We're no better M$ that's not my point - we are lucky enough to be able to see the tsunami before it hits - what's wrong with moving to higher ground F$ when the year 2000 bug was predicted you bought water and found but you were wrong M$ I admit that I am focussed on disasters but scientists, governments and industry are united on this one F$ ok - let's say everyone agrees - peak oil, collapse, then what? M$ I'm not worried about everyone else - just us. Whe

I'd like to see falling wages matched again rising energy prices: http://www.thestreet.com/story/11480568/1/us-standard-of-living-has-fallen-more-than-50-opinion.html  In writing about the relentless collapse of Western economies, I frequently point to "40 years of plummeting wages" for Western workers, in real dollars. However, where I have been remiss is in quantifying the magnitude of this collapse in Western wages.

Power - windmills, watermills, animal, biomas Materials - plant fibres, animal, recycled metal

Transfer wealth to the future Spend money identifying fixing or building sustainable living The military elite protect The farmers Starts with rotation But ends in civil war because they can't share see Antigone

Two countries fixed this France and the USA Other countries tried and failed and their people live as prisoners

End of cities and man defined by purchasing not doing

350 looks great - positive leader / author / scientist - positive message - visualize a much lower CO2 ppm than now what's missing? - a billion dollars - significant support from global thought leaders - like the Pope or Formula 1 or FIFA - a plan b (when you miss the target) - an acknowledgement of how peak oil will impact CO2 -- less oil = less oil consumed -- energy requirements remain unchanged -- other energy sources will be used - specifically coal

http://www.econ.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Morrigan_2010_Energy_CC4.pdf PEAK ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THE COLLAPSE OF GLOBAL CIVILIZATION _______________________________________________________ The Current Peak Oil Crisis TARIEL MÓRRÍGAN

http://www.econ.utah.edu/~mli/Economics%207004/Morrigan_2010_Energy_CC4.pdf Preparing for Peak Oil Local Authorities and the Energy Crisis Prepared by The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre and Post Carbon Institute About The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre www.odac-info.org The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) is an independent, UK-registered educational charity working to raise awareness and promote better understanding of the world’s oil depletion problem. The website (www.odac-info.org) provides a wealth of information and a newsletter giving a weekly roundup and analysis of energy issues.

1 ignore and enjoy 2 despair and moan 3 hope for the best and be positive 4 acknowledge destiny and be at peace What of art? There are two kinds - 1 fantasies that are bound by death through opposition, fear or fetishizing 2 death transcendent - acknowledges death and lives in it - surfs it and is empowered by it

ship  = battery > connect ship battery to hydroelectric dam > send ship to asia > connect ship battery to city grid

Those born with nothing Those born with nothing but pass trials that give them rights but can't be inherited Those born that inherit rights

http://www.ted.com/talks/paul_gilding_the_earth_is_full.html Paul Gilding starts his TEDTalk with four words that say almost everything: “The Earth is full.” It’s a terrifying concept. Have we really strained, mined and otherwise depleted the planet’s resources to the point where social collapse is inevitable? Gilding believes we have, and he launches into a defense of that notion. OR http://www.ted.com/talks/peter_diamandis_abundance_is_our_future.html Peter Diamandis: Abundance is our future what you think? AND What is Peak Oil? http://www.clubofrome.org/flash/peak_oil.html AND Who Killed Economic Growth? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EQqDS9wGsxQ Richard Heinberg propose a startling diagnosis: humanity has reached a fundamental turning point in its economic history. The expansionary trajectory of industrial civilization is colliding with non-negotiable natural limits. AND Change the course of history! http://youtu.be/M_yaZZTpis0 100 years after th

An MIT research team predicts a Global Economic collapse and ensuing global population decline by 2030 due to lack of resources to support the earth’s population. With seven billion people on the planet, the system as it is currently managed can’t possibility continue to support the daily needs of the world’s population. The solutions that have been presented over the course of the last half century fall far short of providing any meaningful results, despite the treasure spent and liberty stripped. Slowly but surely we are approaching Peak Civilization… http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/2012/04/05/peak-civilization-mit-predicts-global-economic-collapse-2030-113991/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304072004577328203742847094.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories The obesity epidemic may be contributing to the rising number of children diagnosed with autism, according to a study published Monday. Researchers said mothers who are obese are significantly more likely to have a child with autism or another developmental abnormality. The finding adds to the increasingly complex picture of possible factors that contribute to the disorders.

Appealing - dieoff.org Abstract curiosity - short history More interest - tainter Compelling - diamond's collapse Obsession - web articles Depression interest More data Do others believe These are facts Keep looking for facts and believers Can it be reversed, stopped Fear Why do humans do this Why do humans repeatedly through history Acceptance How long

News - http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/29/markets-oil-idUSL3E8ET1TB20120329 UPDATE 1-Brent near $124 as U.S. crude stocks rise offsets Iran France  joins Britain and the U.S. in oil reserves release talks Why are they releasing oil reserves? Some reasons: 1. if they don't oil prices will spike 2. keep oil prices down to prevent economic collapse 3. signal that they plan on attacking Iran and there won't be oil shortages 4. there are large oil stock piles so rumors of release will bring prices down without needing to release

The future is Cuba / north Korea Energy poor and dependant on local resources I will survive I will not be a jailer I will not be jailed I will not be a killer I will not be killed Energy Wholesale Sustainable production Distribution - battery delivery and pickup for non grid users Point of use consumer / commercial / industrial / institutional - off the shelf energy systems Bank secure storage - hydrogen, alum, lead acid, LIon Secure transportation Backed notes Magic mountain

The situation We have declining amounts of energy in the future For the past 100 years our culture has flourished because of abundant and cheap energy There are no replacement energy sources available in the quantity or quality needed Options There is no solution only adaption and mitigation Mitigation Curb population - restrict births, offer euthanasia to the elderly, restrict immigration Curb energy usage - restrict private vehicles Curb oil and gas extraction - save for future Adaption Promote local production of goods and services through tariffs Promote mass transit Promote alternate forms of energy generation Promote pre fossil fuels means of production and transportation Promote local production goods and services that do not use fossil fuels

Wealthy secret society Air water ice earth flora fauna Air water ice earth flora fauna to solve degradion Reduce birth rates in the world's richest countries since their citizens use the most resources Air to solve ozone hole Grasses that make air vitamins Air to solve co2 Desert growing plants with oil berries Water to solve ozone hole phytoplankton that make air vitamins Water to solve acidity Coral like things that store co2 Water to solve seabed trawlers Coral like things that are cement like Water to solve over fishing Land farmable vegetarian food fish Water to solve potability Tree whose bark is a sieve to pour water through Ice to solve melting Mold that grows on ice Earth to solve top soil loss Ground cover that fixes with roots Earth to solve salinity Salt plants that make salt pods for picking Flora and fauna to solve extinction / diversity loss / genetic bottleneck Create hybrids with living and extinct Fauna to solve hunger Food crops that

Ancestors didn't give up when They ate all the megafuna There was an ice age They destroyed the ecosystem of the fertile crescent We won't give up when We exhaust all the oil resources We eat all the ocean megafauna The earths temperature rises by 1 degree A large part of the world experiences food shortages

michael mann - hockey stick climate scientist jarrod diamond - scientist joseph tainter - scientist ronald wright - author david mackay - scientist vaclav smil - scientist james kunstler - author Elizabeth Kolbert - journalist

tell me a story - 1 sentence for every 1000 years now start 60,000 years ago

play as 50K old human killing megafauna play as 10k old human cutting down forests for farms play as 100 yr old humans extracting oil

ideas from reading http://www.megafauna.com/intro.htm what brought the first wave of humans out of africa all the way to australia? based on the "fossil" record - it would appear to be big game - the "megafauna" an army can only move as far as its supply chain and an army only moves to aquire resources the megafauna died out 13,000 years ago pretty soon after that farming started now the "fauna" are going extinct we have exploited available resources to extinction since we left africa only 50,000 years ago why? because that behaviour has been rewarded with increased breeding opportunities

you - middle aged me - you: your grandparents were the king and queen. their dominion seemed without end. few dared to challenge them and when they did they were crushed. they sponsored great artists, scientists and engineers, and the feasts i remember went on for days. but in they end, they were very very sick, and they died. we tried everything. the best doctors came and tried the latest operations. they got the best medicine. nothing worked and finally they passed away. at was then that i found out they were deep in debt. they had sold everything. the land and everything under it. the oceans and everything in it. they had left nothing. but that's not true - they had left behind the waste. CONTINUE: play as circus: generations, terrorist, extinction, torture, dance

1. We are moving from increasing energy per person to dwindling energy per person 2. Instead of trying to imagine what the world might look like - are the peoples and places on the planet that are energy poor, have not had increasing amounts of energy or have dwindling amounts of energy now? - Amish - Sub saharan africa - Aboriginal peoples

1. For the 2000 years we have lived in a world of growing energy per person. 2. Going forward we will live in a shrinking amount of energy per person. What will this mean on a day to day basis? Let's consider a cradle to grave life story. 1. Man and wife conceive - it is more difficult than now due to falling sperm rates 2. Wife gives birth - infant mortality is increased - maternal mortality is increased 3. Baby is raised - food costs are higher - schools are multi age due to fewer children - more children die during childhood due to higher cost of medicine or absence - computers are expensive and rare due to the number materials and specialists required - the internet is expensive and rare in rural communities - old computers are valuable and treasured 4. Young adult studies - higher education will be expensive and rare 5. Young adult gets a job - more people will work in agriculture - meat will be very expensive - beer and win

What does the future bring? 1 The first horseman of the apocalypse - peak energy - causes - energy costs to rise sharply - usage by cars 41%, trucks 13%, materials 10%, heat 10%, air travel 7% and other 19% shrinks - the world gets smaller and more local due to reduced travel leading to increased costs - car infrastructure - highways and bridges - become more difficult to maintain, justify and build - marginal remote communities are threatened - militaries focus on nuclear powered vessels - farming returns to less mechanized forms leading to increased costs - train usage will increase - whats the solution? - alternative fuels - are they sufficient to replace fossil fuels? - not even close - http://www.inference.phy.cam.ac.uk/withouthotair/c18/page_103.shtml - cellulose to gas - How to profit? - which items will increase in the price the most? - the items that have the longest to travel by truck - the items that are the heaviest - new cities will rise to prominenc

i'm done. on feb 14 - i thought my goal was "focus - civ collapse vs civ restore" but no more. Thucydides documents The Peloponnesian War and human nature. Civilization collapse and civil war is inevitable - what I might be able to do is reduce - not eliminate the human suffering that is the inevitable result of the 10 horsemen of the apocalypse. my duty is self, family, community, city, and so on http://www.chinaknowledge.de/Literature/Classics/daxue.html neocodesoftware: The ancients who wished to illustrate illustrious virtue throughout the kingdom, first ordered well their own states. Wishing to order well their states, they first regulated their families. Wishing to regulate their families, they first cultivated their persons. Wishing to cultivate their persons, they first rectified their hearts. Wishing to rectify their hearts, they first sought to be sincere in their thoughts. Wishing to be sincere in their thoughts, they first extended to the utmost their knowledg

what's my purpose? compete for resources extract resources faster and more efficiently than my competitors reproduce better and faster than my competitors species that live in balance with their environment can't compete in the short run and may survive in the long run if they can adapt to the environment i have created

The angel and the horsemen of the apocalypse Angel Peak Pollution Horsemen Peak energy Peak debt service ratio Peak land (21 feet sea level rise) Peak top soil Peak disease control / antibiotic effectiveness Peak ideal temperature Peak food Peak water Peak species Peak waste disposal Peak monumental architecture Peak art Peak fertility Peak life expectancy Peak forests

peak oil already old news says IEA - http://www.iea.org/Textbase/npsum/weo2010sum.pdf “Peak oil is not just here — it’s behind us already That’s the conclusion of the International Energy Agency, the Paris-based organization that provides energy analysis to 28 industrialized nations. According to a projection in the agency’s latest annual report, released last week, production of conventional crude oil — the black liquid stuff that rigs pump out of the ground — probably topped out for good in 2006, at about 70 million barrels a day. Production from currently producing oil fields will drop sharply in coming decades, the report suggests.” additional http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/weo2010_london_nov9.pdf oil shortage starting in 2015 http://www.countercurrents.org/martenson251110.htm source: http://www.energy.eu/publications/weo_2010-China.pdf - slide "World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario" Colin Campbell, one of the earliest analysts of peak

peak oil already old news says IEA - http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2010/WEO2010_es_english.pdf "Crude oil output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all-time peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006, while production of natural gas liquids (NGL) and unconventional oil grows quickly." oil shortage starting in 2015 http://www.countercurrents.org/martenson251110.htm Colin Campbell, one of the earliest analysts of peak oil who has decades of oil field experience, is on record as saying that the "fields yet to be developed" category, originally introduced to the world as unidentified Unconventional in 1998, is a "coded message for shortage" and was, off the record, confirmed as such by the IEA. That coded message is getting easier and clearer to receive by the day.

lets focus on the solutions to the problems: - peak oil - peak energy - peak food - peak water - over population - measured how? got any solutions - I can't find any.

toba super eruption 70,000 years ago devastates earth humans recover fastest occupy dominant ecological niches first true?